Articles & Papers
2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014201320122011 | 20102009200820072006 | 2005 | 20042003 | 2002 | 20012000 | Pre-2000

Publications are presented in reverse chronological order. The following codes apply:

PRJ: peer reviewed journal
CP: conference paper
PM: professional magazine
RR: research report
B: book (or chapter in book)
T: thesis

Titles in red text are hyperlinks to the original articles and papers.


2017

Bain R (2017), Better Traffic Forecasts?, Infrastructure Investor, Issue 81, 38-41, April 2017, PEI Media Ltd, London. [PM]

2016

Bain R (2016), Turnpike Porn: A Photo-Celebration of Contemporary Toll Roads, Bridges & Tunnels, ISBN 978-0-9561527-4-9, Marketmaker Group, December 2016, London. [B]

2015

Bain R (2015), Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting Revisited: Consultants in the Dock, Local Transport Today, LTT 680, 4 - 17 September 2015, London. [PM]

Bain R (2015), A Sting in the Tail: Toll Road Valuation, Infrastructure Investor, Issue 62, 32-35, May 2015, PEI Media Ltd, London. [PM]

2014

Bain R (2014), How Do You Put a Price on Roads?, Infrastructure Investor, Issue 56, 46-53, October 2014, PEI Media Ltd, London. [PM]

Halvarsson A, Rydell I, Holmström M, Blagoeva T and Bain R (2014), Ex-Post Evaluation of the Loan Guarantee Instrument for Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) Projects, Directorate General for Mobility and Transport, Directorate A: General Policy, European Parliament, January 2014, Brussels. [RR]

2013

Bain R (2013), Toll Roads: Big Trouble Down Under, Infrastructure Journal, 17 January 2013, London. [PM]

2012

Van Essen H, Brinke L, Bain R, Smith N and Skinner I (2012), Financing Instruments for the EU’s Transport Infrastructure, Directorate General for Internal Policies, Policy Department B: Structural and Cohesion Policies, European Parliament, December 2012, Brussels. [RR]

Meaney A and Bain R (2012), Good Procurement: Rewarding Deliverability Rather than Excessive Risk, Local Transport Today, LTT 608, 26 October - 8 November 2012, London. [PM]

Bain R, Meaney A, Dixon P and Davis C (2012), Disincentivising Overbidding for Toll Road Concessions, Oxera (for the Australian Department of Infrastructure and Transport), September 2012, Sydney. [RR]

2011

Smith N, Bain R and Kanowski S (2011), An Investigation of the Causes of Over-Optimistic Patronage Forecasts for Selected Recent Toll Road Projects, GHD (for the Australian Department of Infrastucture and Transport), December 2011, Sydney. [RR]

Bain R (2011), The Wisdom of Crowds: A Survey of Forecasting Accuracy, Data & Modelling, Issue 8, Summer 2011, Local Transport Today, June 2011, 33-34, London. [PM]

Bain R (2011), On the Reasonableness of Traffic Forecasts: A Survey of Predictive Capability, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 52, No. 5, May 2011, 213-217. [PM]

Robinson N and Bain R (2011), The Implications of EIB and EBRD Co-financing for the EU Budget, Directorate General for Internal Policies, Policy Department D: Budgetary Affairs, European Parliament, March 2011, Brussels. [RR]

Bain R (2011), Public-Private Partnership Lessons from Europe, Transportation Builder, January-February 2011, 19-21, February 2011, The American Road & Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA), Washington DC. [PM]

Bain R (2011), TTI Interview, Traffic Technology International, February/March 2011, 41-43, UKIP, Dorking, Surrey. [PM]

Bain R (2011), Is it Time to Revisit PPP Ratings?
, Infrastructure Investor, Issue 19, 39-42, February 2011, PEI Media Ltd, London. [PM]

2010

Bain R (2010), Modelling Best Practice: The Benefits of Peer Reviews, Data & Modelling: Winter 2010, Local Transport Today, December 2010, 9-10, London. [PM]

Bain R (2010), And Now, the Traffic Report (full version), Tollways, Journal of the International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association, Fall 2010, 69-76, Washington DC. [PRJ]


Bain R (2010), Transport Modelling: Is it Art or Science?, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 51, No. 7, July 2010, 243-245. [PM]


Bain R (2010), And Now, the Traffic Report (abridged version), PPP Bulletin International, Volume 1, Issue 4, Summer 2010, Rockcliffe Ltd., London. [PM]

Bain R (2010), Public Sector Comparators for UK PFI Roads: Inside the Black Box, Transportation, Vol. 37, No. 3, May 2010, Springer, Netherlands. [PRJ]

Bain R (2010), Toll Road Investments: The Central Role of Traffic & Revenue Forecasts, Proceedings of the PLUS International Expressway Conference 2010 (PIECE 2010), 5-7 April 2010, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. [CP]

Bain R (2010), Construction Risk - What Risk?, Project Finance International, Issue 426, 10 February 2010, Thomson Reuters, London. [PM]

2009

Bain R (2009), Public Sector Comparators for UK PFI Roads: Inside the Black Box, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 5-7 October 2009, Noordwijkerhout, Netherlands. [CP]

Bain R (2009), Error and Optimism Bias in Toll Road Traffic Forecasts, Transportation, Vol. 36, No. 5, September 2009, Springer, Netherlands. [PRJ]

Bain R (2009), In Support of User-Paid Tolls,  PPP Bulletin International, Volume 1, Issue 2, Autumn 2009, Rockcliffe Ltd., London. [PM]

Bain R (2009), Previsiones de Tráfico e Ingresos en Carreteras de Peaje, ISBN 978-0-9561527-2-5, June 2009. [Spanish language version of ISBN 978-0-9561527-1-8: see below]. [B]

Bain R (2009), Review of Lessons from Completed PPP Projects Financed by the EIB, European Investment Bank, May 2009, Luxembourg. [RR]

Bain R (2009), Roads to the Future, Chapter 13 in The Future of Project Finance: The Crisis in Perspective, Thomson Reuters, London. [B]

Bain R (2009), Toll Road Traffic & Revenue Forecasts: An Interpreter's Guide, ISBN 978-0-9561527-1-8, April 2009. [B]

Bain R (2009), Big Numbers Win Prizes: Twenty-One Ways to Inflate Toll Road Traffic & Revenue Forecasts, Project Finance International, Issue 406, 8 April 2009, Thomson Reuters, London. [PM]

2008

Bain R (2008), PFI Rates of Return: Evidence from the UK's PFI Roads Sector, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 6-8 October 2008, Noordwijkerhout, Netherlands. [CP]

Bain R (2008), Privately Financed Roads in Britain: A Policy Assessment, PhD Thesis, July 2008, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK. [T]

2007

Bain R (2007), PPP Construction Risk: International Evidence from the Roads Sector, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 17-19 October 2007, Noordwijkerhout, Netherlands. [CP]

Bain R and Plantagie JW (2007), The Anatomy of Construction Risk: Lessons from a Millennium of PPP Experience, April 2007, Standard & Poor’s, London. [RR]

2006

Ortiz F, Bain R and Carniado S (2006), A Credit Review of Mexico’s Toll Road Sector, September 2006, Standard & Poor’s, Mexico City. [RR]

Forsgren K, Calder P, Bain R and Greer I (2006), Global Infrastructure Assets and Highly Leveraged Concessions Raise New Rating Considerations, September 2006, Standard & Poor’s, Boston. [RR]

Bain R, Forsgren K and Calder P (2006), Credit FAQ: Assessing the Credit Quality of Highly Leveraged, Deep-Future Toll Road Concessions, February 2006, Standard & Poor’s, London. [RR]

Bain R, (2006), Are Credit Risks Lurking in the Shadows?, Tollways (IBTTA), Vol. 3, No. 2, Winter 2006, 103-109. [PRJ]

2005

Bain R and Wilkins M (2005), European Toll Roads 2005: Sector Trends and Credit Developments, October 2005, Standard & Poor’s, London. [RR]

Bain R (2005), Traffic Forecasting Risk: Through Ramp-Up and Beyond, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 3-5 October 2005, Strasbourg. [CP]

Bain R and Polakovic L (2005), Traffic Forecasting Risk Study 2005: Through Ramp-Up and Beyond, August 2005, Standard & Poor’s, London. [RR]

Bain R (2005), Major Road Works Ahead, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 46, No. 7, July 2005, 248-251. [PM]

Bain R (2005), Optimism Bias and Error in Toll Road Traffic Forecasts, Proceedings of the 37th Annual Universities’ Transport Studies Group Conference, 5-7 January 2005, Bristol. [CP]

2004

Bain R and Plantagie JW (2004), Managing Lenders’ Exposure to Traffic Risk is the Key Credit Driver for Shadow Toll Roads, October 2004, Standard & Poor’s, London. [RR]

Bain R (2004), Are Forecasts More than Just Random Number Generators? Optimism Bias in Traffic and Revenue Forecasts, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 4-6 October 2004, Strasbourg. [CP]

Bain R and Plantagie JW (2004), Traffic Forecasting Risk: Study Update 2004, October 2004, Standard & Poor’s, London. [RR]

Bain R and Plantagie JW (2004), Smooth Ride for European Toll Roads in 2004, but Twists and Turns Ahead, September 2004, Standard & Poor’s, London. [RR]

Bain R (2004), Obtaining the Finance: Assessing the Credit Quality of Tram Schemes, in Tram, Trolley or Guided Bus: What are the Best Choices for London?, April 2004, Greater London Authority, ISBN 1 85261 585 0, London. [CP]

Bain R, Richardson M and Veron JF (2004), Fast Track to a Borderless Europe: The Credit Dynamics of High-Speed Rail, March 2004, Standard & Poor’s, London. [PM]

2003

Bain R and Plantagie JW (2003), Traffic Forecasting Risk: Study Update 2003, November 2003, Standard & Poor’s, London. [RR]

Bain R and Plantagie JW (2003), The Credit Dynamics of Congestion Charging, November 2003, Standards & Poor’s, London. [RR]

Bain R (2003), The Changing Credit Landscape for European Toll Roads, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 8-10 October 2003, Strasbourg. [CP]

Bain R (2003), Why Investors Should be Cautious of Planners Wearing Rose-Tinted Spectacles, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 44, No. 8, September 2003, 274-275. [PM]

Bain R (2003), Fare's Fair? Why Tram projects are on a Bumpy Road, July 2003, Standard & Poor’s, London. [RR]

Bain R and Wilkins M (2003), The Evolution of DBFO Payment Mechanisms: One More for the Road?, March 2003, Standard & Poor’s, London. [PM]

2002

Bain R and Wilkins M (2002), The Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-Up Toll Facilities, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 9-11 September, 2002, Cambridge. [CP]

Bain R and Wilkins M (2002), The Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-Up Toll Facilities: Appendix – Traffic Risk Index, September 2002, Standard & Poor’s, London. [RR]

Bain R and Wilkins M (2002), The Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-Up Toll Facilities, August 2002, Standard & Poor’s, London. [PM]

Bain R (2002), Improving the Quality of City Centre Parking: Will the Consumer Pay?, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 43, No. 5, May 2002, 175-177. [PM]

Bain R (2002), Kerb Guided Bus: Is This Affordable LRT?, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 43, No. 2, February 2002, 51-55. [PM]

2001

Bain R and LaRue B (2001), An Ongoing Commitment, TollTrans, Traffic Technology International Supplement 2001, 42-45, UKIP, Dorking, Surrey. [PM]

Bain R (2001),
Moveable Barrier Technology: the Key to the Dynamic Highway?, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 42, No. 10, November 2001, 340-344. [PM]

Bain R (2001), Cardiff’s Real-Time Information System for Bus Passengers, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 42, No. 9, October 2001, 300-302. [PM]

Bain R (2001), The Use of GPS-Based Automatic Vehicle Location Technologies for Bus Transit: State of the Practice in the USA and Lessons for Elsewhere, Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 10-12 September 2001, Cambridge. [CP]

Bain R (2001), GPS-Based Automatic Vehicle Location Technology: What Do We Want from this Technology?, Proceedings of The City at your Fingertips (2nd European Congress on ITS), 20-23 June 2001, Bilbao. [CP]

2000

Bain R (2000), Conversion to Electronic Toll Collection: A Puerto Rican Case Study (part II), Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 41, No. 11, December 2000, 448-454. [PM]

Bain R (2000), Conversion to Electronic Toll Collection: A Puerto Rican Case Study (part I), Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 41, No. 10, November 2000, 416-421. [PM]

Bain R and Torres C (2000), Moveable Barrier Technologies: Lessons for Future Applications, 28th Summer Annual Meeting of Planning and Transport Research and Computation, 27-29 September 2000, Cambridge. [CP]

Bain R (2000), The Buchanan Toll Plaza: A Corridor Approach to Capacity Planning, Proceedings of the IBTTA Annual Meeting, 23-27 September 2000, Madrid. [CP]

1999

Bain R (1999), Adopting Electronic Toll Collection Technologies, Proceedings of the 27th Summer Annual Meeting of Planning and Transport Research and Computation, 27-29 September 1999, Cambridge. [CP]

1996

Bain R and Russell CH (1996), Horses for Courses: Determining the Optimal Pricing Strategy for a Tolled Highway Project, Proceeding of the 24th Summer Annual Meeting of Planning and Transport Research and Computation, 2-6 September 1996, Brunel University. [CP]

1995

Bain R and Russell CH (1995), Traffic and Revenue Forecasting for Toll Roads in Developing Economies, Proceedings of the 23rd Summer Annual Meeting of Planning and Transport Research and Computation, 11-15 September 1995, Warwick. [CP]

Bain R (1995), Shopmobility: A Critical Link Between the Vehicle and the Pedestrian Environment for People with Impaired Mobility, Proceedings of the 23rd Summer Annual Meeting of Planning and Transport Research and Computation, 11-15 September 1995, Warwick. [CP]

1993

Bain R and Pettitt T (1993), Social Car Schemes: A Hidden Revolution in Public Transport Delivery, Surveyor, December 1993, Hemming Group, London. [PM]

McLeod F, Hounsell N and Bain R (1993), Road Pricing: Highway Reliability Supply Effects, Proceedings of the 21st Summer Annual Meeting of Planning and Transport Research and Computation, 13-17 September 1993, Manchester. [CP]

Bain R and Pettitt T (1993), Social Car Schemes: A Comprehensive Guide to Organised Car Sharing, 2nd Edition, Community Transport Association, ISBN 0 9522439 0 3. [B]

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