Books


Rob's two most recently published books are described below.  The first, “Toll Road Traffic & Revenue Forecasts: An Interpreter’s Guide”, is also available in Spanish and Chinese.


     
Toll Road Traffic & Revenue Forecasts: An Interpreter’s Guide
April 2009. 124pp. 978-0956152718. Hardcover.
 
     Privately Financed Roads in Britain: A Policy Assessment
April 2009. 212pp. 978-0956152701. Paperback.

Toll Road Traffic & Revenue Forecasts: An Interpreter's Guide 
RBconsult  





Toll roads, bridges and tunnels represent the most popular class of infrastructure attracting international private finance today. Many deals, however, expose financiers, insurers and other project counterparties to demand risk. This moves traffic and revenue forecasts centre-stage in terms of being able to understand and test the investment proposition - yet the forecasting process itself often remains a mystery. Additionally, there are frequent concerns about predictive reliability set against a history of poor forecasting accuracy.

Written specifically for credit analysts, investors and other professionals whose primary expertise lies outside transportation, this book lifts the lid on the 'black box' of traffic and revenue forecasting.

Readers are introduced to traffic modelling and the factors underpinning future projections of asset use – and the resulting project revenues – in simple-to-comprehend language. This straightforward guide highlights key issues to watch for and suggests ways in which traffic and revenue forecasts can be analysed to improve transparency and investor understanding.



“This book is a must-read for all interested in the revenue risks of toll roads.”

Professor Bent Flyvbjerg (author, ‘Megaprojects and Risk’, The Netherlands)

“This is essential reading for all engaged in the process of putting together and evaluating bids for toll road projects…”

Professor David A Hensher (Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies, Sydney)

“Monoline insurers and other long-term project participants have much to gain from looking inside the black-box and understanding the ‘art’ behind industry consultants’ projections.”

Eugenio Mendoza (MD, MBIA Insurance Corporation, New York)

“Rob Bain’s easy-to-follow guide provides project sponsors and financiers with useful tools to help demystify the black art of traffic forecasting.”

Frank Schramm (MD, Bilfinger Berger Project Investments GmbH, Germany)


$62.95 on£27.95 on 
   
Privately Financed Roads in Britain: A Policy Assessment
RBconsult 
'Privately Financed Roads in Britain: A Policy Assessment' critically examines the role of private finance in the construction, operation, maintenance and management of modern highways.

The focus is on the UK's Private Finance Initiative (PFI) yet many of the lessons learned retain a currency in the context of international public-private partnerships.

Separate chapters cover: Public Policy Objectives; Key Project-Level Risks (construction and traffic); Value for Money and Public Sector Comparators; The Financial Architecture of Private Sector Road Operating Companies; Strengths and Weaknesses of the Privately-Financed Roads Model; Alternative Debt/Equity Structuring; and Containing Private Financing Costs.


 $104.95 on£47.45 on

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