Academic Qualifications
PhD, Privately-Financed Infrastructure, Institute for Transport
Studies, University of Leeds, 2008.
Diploma, Traffic Engineering, Middlesex
University, London, 1994.
MSc, Business and Economic Forecasting, Kingston University,
London, 1992.
MSc, Transport Planning & Management, University of Westminster,
London, 1989.
Academic Appointments:
Honorary Professor, University College London, February 2021 -
February 2023.
Visiting Research Fellow, University of Leeds, September 2010 -
January 2021.
Professional Qualifications
Chartered Civil Engineer (2005).
Professional Appointments:
Member, Expert Analytical Advice and Challenge Panel (RIS2/3),
UK Department for Transport.
Employment
2007 to date: Managing Director, RBconsult Ltd
Independent consultant providing technical and commercial ‘peer
reviews’ of toll road traffic and revenue forecasts for many of
the top infrastructure investors in the world: pension funds,
alternative asset managers, sovereign wealth funds (and other
debt or equity providers).
I have also reviewed toll road forecasts for various
international government agencies (eg. ministries of finance),
toll road operators, development banks and insurance companies.
As RBconsult, I have reviewed over 100 toll roads, bridges and
tunnels around the world (in 18 different countries).
In addition, I provide Expert Witness services for international
arbitration and litigation cases (relating to traffic forecasts)
- mainly in Australia and the US (five litigations and one
arbitration to date).
2002-2007: Director, Standard & Poor’s
Director and global toll road sector co-ordinator in the
agency’s European Infrastructure Finance Ratings practice.
Responsible for credit analysis, ratings and surveillance in the
road, rail, airport, bus and PPP sectors - covering corporate
and structured finance (mainly project finance transactions and
securitisations). Primary analytical responsibilities for $4.5bn
of issued debt.
Additional responsibility for transport-related credit risk
research which resulted in the publication of a series of
technical reports examining forecast accuracy and predictive
reliability.
1988-2001: Associate Director, Steer Davies Gleave
Traffic and transportation consultant with international
experience from Europe, Latin America and Asia. Specialised in
transportation demand modelling (particularly traffic and
revenue studies for investor-financed toll roads) using SATURN
and EMME/2.
Office manager of the company’s full-service Caribbean office in
Puerto Rico for six years (1995-2001).
Professional Memberships
Fellow, Institution of Civil Engineers
Fellow, Chartered Institution of Highways & Transportation
Fellow, Institute of Credit Management
Member, Expert Witness Institute
Lecturing & Training
Guest lecturer at over 10 universities in the UK & USA (North
Eastern University, Boston and Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, Cambridge). Transportation economics course
supervisor/lecturer (UK & Egypt). Transport investment appraisal
course supervisor/lecturer (Bulgaria).
Professional development and institutional capacity-building
courses and workshops (on traffic risk, credit risk, project
finance and PPPs) delivered in the UK, South Africa and
Malaysia.
Research
PhD Research
Doctoral thesis examined the structuring and use of private
finance for infrastructure (mainly highway) projects.
On-Going Research Interests
- Transport demand modelling
- Predictive capability and forecasting accuracy
- Credit risk modelling
Publications
Articles/Papers
Author of over 50 papers published in peer-reviewed journals,
conference proceedings and transportation / finance magazines.
Topics have included traffic risk, the predictive accuracy of
traffic and transit demand forecasting models, credit ratings,
lessons from public-private partnerships and numerous
credit-related articles on transportation issues (see
articles & papers for more
detail).
Books
Author of two recently published books: "Toll Road Traffic &
Revenue Forecasts - An Interpreter's Guide" (ISBN
978-0-9561527-1-8) and "Privately-Financed Roads in Britain: A
Policy Assessment" (ISBN 978-0-9561527-0-1). The Traffic &
Revenue Forecasting book is available in Spanish and Chinese –
see
books for more detail.
Peer Reviews
Peer reviewer for a number of internationally-recognised
academic journals. Recent examples include:
- Transportation
- Transportation Research Part A: Policy & Practice
- Transport Policy
- Transport Reviews
- The European Journal of Transport and
Infrastructure Research
- Journal of the American Planning Association
- Journal of Transportation and
Statistics
- Neural Computing & Applications
Insurance (global cover)
Professional Indemnity (EWI): HU PI6 1427234
References
Professional, academic & personal references - and training
testimonials - available upon
request. |